Use Leading and Lagging Indicators

Pair them, state the lag, and write what would prove the relationship wrong.

See the situation

Start with the situation below. Next, we will work through an example together before you try the activity.

Elena · Reporting lead

The case

A number everyone optimizes and nobody has tested

A leading signal may precede an outcome. State its expected lag and what would challenge the relationship.

Leading metric: Tracked weekly, discussed in every stand-up
Lagging metric it supposedly predicts: Not reported next to it
Expected lag: Never stated
Times the relationship has been checked: None
What it is: A bet nobody has settled

Your task

Pair the early signal with its later outcome. Keep recent cases out of a mature-outcome comparison.

Need a little guidance?

You’re done when: The pair is labeled as a hypothesis until later outcome evidence exists.

Leading indicators are useful only when the relationship can eventually be checked.

Need a reminder? Reopen the worked example

Watch one example first

First-contact speed is available early. A 30-day booking outcome takes longer. A cohort aged five days cannot yet establish the full 30-day booking rate.

Why this follows from the evidence

A leading signal may precede an outcome but does not prove it. Compare mature cohorts and state when immature ones become assessable.

GTM Lab

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Case evidence

A number everyone optimizes and nobody has tested

Leading metric: Tracked weekly, discussed in every stand-up
Lagging metric it supposedly predicts: Not reported next to it
Expected lag: Never stated
Times the relationship has been checked: None
What it is: A bet nobody has settled

The metric above is discussed every week and has never been tested against the thing it supposedly predicts. Pair it, and write the falsifier.

Check the case below to save your activity result and this chapter’s prepared example plan section. You can inspect that template in the saved plan above; no live records are changed.

Inspect the prepared example

Wait for the outcome window before judging the signal

First-contact speed is an early signal. Bookings are counted within 30 days of qualification. Recent cohorts have not had a full chance to produce that outcome.

Prepared cohort contact speed and 30-day booking outcomes
Cohort	Qualified	Contacted within 1 day	Bookings within 30 days	Mature?
Week 1	40	20	12	Yes
Week 2	42	30	13	Yes
Week 3	38	30	9	Not yet
Week 4	45	36	4	Not yet

What outcome window applies?Which cohorts can support a current outcome comparison?What alternative explanation should the review test?

Restoring this data activity…

Optional: compare alternative reasoning

The case tool above saves your result and completes this activity. These comparisons are extra practice; they do not change your saved plan.

Work the case · 0 of 2 sections drafted

Pair them, and say what would prove you wrong

Compare these alternatives one section at a time. Check a choice to see its consequence; the draft summary below keeps the proposed changes together.

Step 1 of 2

Which pairing is real?

Touches in the first week leading stall rate.The engagement composite leading the qualification score.Time to first contact leading the share reaching a conversation.

This is a proposed draft until the chapter check runs. Selecting a choice alone does not complete the chapter.

4b · Proposed

Metric definition draft

Metric definition draft · current draftCompare the original state with the proposed change. This preview does not change live records.

Metric definition draft · current draft
Item	Before	Proposed	Why
Which pairing is real?	No saved change in this exercise draft	Not drafted yet	Choose a proposal to see what it would add to the draft.
What has to travel with the pairing?	No saved change in this exercise draft	Not drafted yet	Choose a proposal to see what it would add to the draft.

Which pairing is real?: BeforeNo saved change in this exercise draft; ProposedNot drafted yet; WhyChoose a proposal to see what it would add to the draft.
What has to travel with the pairing?: BeforeNo saved change in this exercise draft; ProposedNot drafted yet; WhyChoose a proposal to see what it would add to the draft.

A choice appears here as a proposal, not as evidence that a live system changed.

Your place saves as you go.

Chapter 5 of 90 complete